Originally published by Nick Ratajczak, Chad Miller, and David Hansen.
Baseball is as much of an art as it is a science. However, understanding that with the emergence of analytics and emphasis on statistics one is of the game that should absolutely explode is the act of stealing second base. If a coach truly looks at baseball on a match up basis there are several plays and situations that need to be addressed based on a mathematical equation. Those plays and situations range from a hitter running down the line for a ground ball, an outfielder throwing the ball to a cut off man, and in this situation applying pressure on the Pitcher and Catcher through stealing second base. This article will cover the time gaps and favor swings that occur with Offense and Defense battling on the basepaths. The goal of this article is to prove that given the correct match up the offense will be in a position of power. If an organization, university, high school, or team can develop solid scouting reports and get baseline information on their player the team can formulate a strategy to apply unprecedented pressure on the defense. This information can be used to tip the scales in their favor using a relatively simple equation.
The little things in baseball aren’t the most exciting to practice but can be the most rewarding for players. A lot of attention is on the common numbers like home runs, RBIs, velocity, and pitching statistics and metrics. Hitting or working on groundballs seems to be the favorite for anyone. However, a certain aspect of the game that should be used for 15-20 minutes every practice is base stealing. Individually, stealing bases can be a check mark in a college scholarship resume, or lead a team to a World Series.
The first thing anyone thinks of when they hear stolen bases is speed. Young players can chuckle and joke about not being a base stealer because they say they are too slow or only hit homers. Let's be honest, speed is a huge advantage in every sport, but you don't have to run a good 60 time in order to be classified as a base stealer. In baseball, confidence is one of the most important requirements. Since it is up to the player to be confident, how do they gain it while leading off first base? Not only having technique but understanding they’re beating the math problem.
In order to establish baseline data there are a few measurements that need to be taken on your players before a solid strategy can be created around the players individual strengths:
Offensive Measurables
- 81 Feet Sprint
- Neurocognitive Reaction Time
- Amount of time that the player travels one foot.
Defensive Measurables
- Pitcher Delivery Time
- Pitcher Pick Time
- Catcher pop time
First base to second base is 90 feet, the pitcher’s mound to home plate and first base is 60 feet, 6 inches, and the distance from home plate to second base is 127 feet and 3 3/8 inches. The average pitch to home plate travels 400 milliseconds. While the average pitch total delivery time is 1.33 seconds, and the average catcher pop time is 2.01 seconds. If a base runner knows their numbers going into a game the main factor will be the runner’s distance of their leadoff to gain an advantage.
There are three parts to the baserunning part of the Steal Confidence Equation. The first part is knowing the runners 81 feet sprint time. If a player understands their 81 feet sprint time as a benchmark, then they can factor the second part of the equation, which is lead length. Based upon the 81 feet sprint and average time that it takes a runner to travel one foot can be calculated. If there is a time gap favoring the defensive calculation, then the baserunner will add the appropriate length to their lead which will sway the equation in the favor of the runner. The third factor of the defensive equation involves Neurocognitive function. The baserunners time that it takes for them to process the delivery to the plate also must be accounted for. If a baserunner has a slow reaction time to a pitcher delivering the ball, then that deficiency would cause the baserunner to get a bad jump.
The table below shows the Steal Confidence Equation:
In the case study above the baserunner can confidently steal the base with a standard nine-foot lead. With this runner based upon his total offensive time he will travel one foot in .037 seconds. The player must now know how to get to nine feet. Practicing measuring leadoffs can be the biggest difference for any team. In the event that a new pitcher was to come in or the pitcher in this equation were to make an adjustment then the baserunner will know how many feet that they have to add based upon this equation. In a game situation this can be a lot of math. However, coaches can do the work on the front-end set tables for time adjustments. Based upon the baserunner traveling one foot in .037 seconds the player can also factor a confidence in pick time match ups as well. The average pick time for a right-handed pitcher to first is 1.2 seconds. The base runners max lead based upon the pitchers pick time would be 14.5 feet.
In this case study the baserunner will be able to confidently steal a base most of a time. An easy way to convey this chart to a baserunner is to color code each lead distance as displayed above. As the baserunner steps onto first to get the sign from the third base coach the first base coach can be telling him that it is “Green Day or a Orange Day”. This simplifies the equation for the players and allows them to understand the concept more effectively. This will also instill confidence in the player that they can take the base.
Yes, getting faster and stronger will make an individual and the team better; knocking a 30-yard dash down a hundredth or tenth of a second because of muscle and speed increase will be a difference on the bases. Also, adjusting techniques because every second and millisecond determines safe or out. But learning how to steal off the equation goes a long way. Making a straight line shorter with more time will increase any runner’s confidence and make a defense adjust. Figuring out counts to run in, when breaking balls might be thrown, or when a pop time from the mound or catcher shows the baserunner’s advantage. Stealing a base is solving a math problem. If you as a coach or as a baserunner understand
this factors that go into the equation, then your team will have a new found weapon in your arsenal.
For more information please contact:
Chad Miller M.A.
(502)407-1434
ChadMiller7@icloud.com